We Never Learn, Do We?

 

Osama bin Laden made it his strategy to lure the U.S. into war, and we obliged, spending trillions, costing thousands of American lives, and hundreds of thousands of Afghani and Iraqi lives. With boots on the ground, we failed to stabilize either country, and particularly mismanaged Iraq. Instead of promoting Sunni-Shia reconciliation, we supported a regime which polarized the two religious groups. IS, or rather NB, the New Barbarians, rose from the ashes of our policies.

 

We encouraged the Arab Spring, then failed to support the reformers, because some of them did not agree with our values. Syria has become part of the great game between Russia and the U.S. Many thousands have died, and millions have fled. The U.S. avoids major responsibility for the flood of refugees.The Middle East is in flames, and the NB continues like a mosquito to sting the elephant, who thrashes around trying to relieve the itch.

 

Now our failures have spread to Europe, which is following a similarly foolish path. The European Union, facing apparently unlimited numbers of refugees, responds by trying to shut the door. Paying Turkey and others to close the borders and house the refugees looks attractive in the short-run. What will happen when the refugee camps fail to offer adequate housing, education, integration and jobs? The refugees will attempt to move North, and then what? Shoot them?

 

Right-wingers everywhere have equated refugees with terrorists, and many country’s leaders are tightening the borders, and increasing intrusive security measures. Germany is isolated in the European Union, and the pressure on Chancellor Merkel to reverse her humanitarian course increases daily. Her only way out may be to call for every EU member to accept up to 2% of its population in refugees, and embarrass the EU into agreeing. It is not at all clear that the EU cares enough to be embarrassed.

 

Now, the EU and the U.S. are attempting to bomb the NB into oblivion. It will not work. What is certain is that the bombing will kill more civilians than it will the NB. How will that help solve the problem?

 

Remember Vietnam, where we treated anything that moved as an enemy, killed millions, and still lost? No one can really believe that an air campaign will succeed. The NB will increase the number of stings, and soon we will hear calls for more boots on the ground. And if the EU and the U.S. again bring troops into the Middle East? It will be a war of the West against Islam. We cannot win such a war.

 

Instead of short-term thrashing around, we need to consider a more realistic and effective strategy. The only boots on the ground with a chance of neutralizing the NB are Islamic boots. Sunni’s, in particular, have to lead the fight. But why should they bother when the elephant is so obliging?

 

We need to do everything possible to bring our Islamic allies into this fight. Radical imams should lose their state support. Extremism in the Middle Eastern media needs to be managed and muted. Education, jobs and support services need to be strengthened everywhere. This is not a call for democracy as much as a call for responsibility. Saudi Arabia, especially, needs to be a voice for tolerance. This will not be easy to achieve, but it is an essential goal.

 

And if our Middle Eastern allies continue to sit on the sidelines? Perhaps we should withdraw, and wait for them to recognize that the fight is theirs to win or lose. Perhaps if they feel threatened by the NB, they will respond.This is not a religious war. It is a conflict between the values of a civilized world, especially the objective rule of law, with fairness and security for everyone, versus the values of the NB.

 

It is essential to remember that the elephant can tolerate the stings, painful as they are. The U.S. and the EU can handle and cope with terrorist attacks without mindless retaliation. The U.S. and the EU can accept many more refugees, and save many lives. The U.S. and the EU can substantially increase aid to the other countries with refugee problems We need to play our game instead of the terrorists’ game. Patience is hard, but it is possible. If and when Sunnis lead the fight against the NB, we can win. In the meantime, we all need to keep our heads and refuse the temptation to strike out blindly, like a wild elephant.

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27 January 2016

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Published on the Huffington Post

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Germany And The Refugees

 

Before Paris, it was clear that Mama Merkel had underestimated European Union (and even German) fear of the “other,” especially with no end in sight. State President Seehofer in Bavaria led the pressure to curtail the flow of refugees into Germany. EU countries refused the open door Merkel had called for.

 

The Chancellor had taken a moral position and stood firm. For her, the refugee problem was a humanitarian challenge: the proper response was to welcome the refugees, and to begin the process of support, education and integration into German society. Every member of her cabinet supported her position. All spoke eloquently and compassionately. This rare moral stand made Germany a beacon for the dispossessed all over the world.

 

However, even if one million refugees this year entering Germany represents only 1.2 % of the population, the prospect of years of one-million-plus each year unsettled many. Accepting the refugees also would not deal with the cause of the flow, the crisis and unending war and chaos in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. With Russia supporting Assad in Syria, and with Sunni-Shia conflicts escalating everywhere, the prospects for a peaceful resolution for the Middle East seem distant.

 

After Paris, Poland suspended its cooperation for assisting the flow of refugees. Other countries will follow. The pressure for a harder line in Germany will increase. The EU has committed funds to Turkey and others to help them cope with their flood of refugees, but what happens if the camps become dead-ends for the refugees? Will they stay there, or will they continue to try to make it into the EU? And if the EU closes its borders, will that really stop the flow, or just slow it down?

 

The conflicts need to be resolved, and order restored to the Middle East, with some semblance of services, education, and the rule of law. Even if the Western powers and Russia escalate their military attacks on IS (better the NB, or the New Barbarians), it looks as if the only way to effectively suppress the terrorists would be if both Sunni and Shia unite against them, and carry the fight door-to-door to root them out.

 

How likely is this in the short-term? The Syria talks coming up may offer a blueprint, but the pressure has to be on the Islamic states to take responsibility and the lead. This has to become the key element of everyone’s strategy. Uniting against a common enemy is not that strange an idea. Can it happen in the Middle East? Let us hope, and work for this end.

 

Berlin, 15 Nov 2015

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Published on the Huffington Post

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Getting Out Of Iraq, Really

 

Candidate Obama called Iraq the wrong war, and a dumb war. He was right. No vital U.S. interests were involved in Iraq, and our intervention has unnecessarily cost thousands of U.S. lives, and tens of thousands of Iraqi lives, not to mention perhaps a trillion dollars, and millions of refugees. 

Now, however, President Obama has changed his plans. Only two brigades will return this year, instead of the one each month he promised. This is to try to ensure peaceful elections next Fall. This sounds a lot like Bush's nation-building, and a continuation of folly. 

In addition, he now calls for a residual force of 50,000. This guarantees continued U.S. and Iraqi deaths, for no reasonable purpose. The Iraqi people ultimately will have to sort out their future, better done without our interference. Already the debate has begun on whether the U.S. should continue to support Mr. Maliki. Guess what: we have no right to choose the leadership of Iraq. We need to get out sooner, rather than later.. 

There is no strategic or legal basis for a long-term continued U.S. presence in Iraq. Iraq is no threat to the U.S. Turning Iraq into a staging area for counter-terrorism actions will weaken the Iraqi government, and strengthen those who see us as imperialists.

Don't be a wimp, Mr. President: get us out of Iraq, completely.

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Saturday, February 28, 2009

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Iraq Is Not A War

 

The war in Iraq is over. It was over with the declaration, “Mission Accomplished.” And, what was that mission? Neutralize the Iraqi military, remove Mr. Hussein, and eliminate weapons of mass destruction. All three were accomplished in a matter of weeks, even if it took a bit longer to verify that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

If the war ended years ago, why is the U.S. military still there? It can’t be to remove autocrats and create democracy in the Middle East, or we also would have invaded several other countries, including those of some “allies.” It can’t be to create democracy, as the U.S. rejected the results of a free election in Gaza, because we did not like the outcome. It is a cynical contradiction to support democracy in Iraq, autocracy among our allies, and simultaneously reject the exercise of democracy elsewhere.

One suspects the goal is to control Iraqi oil, especially since the U.S. has pressed to open ownership of the oil fields to foreign investors. And, most likely, the goal is to establish a base for long-term U.S. influence in the area. Why else construct such a large embassy, or several giant military air bases?

Are these legitimate aims? If Iraq no longer presents an imminent threat to the U.S., what is the basis under international law for our continued occupation of Iraq? What can justify the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi citizens, or the creation of one or two million Iraqi refugees? What can justify the waste of 4,000 U.S. lives, tens of thousands of U.S. wounded, and a trillion dollars?

Whatever one thinks of the answers to these questions, it is long since time for us to change the rhetoric on Iraq. The war is long over. Iraq is no threat. It is time to speak of ending the occupation.
 

Saturday, March 15, 2008